Today the cross-border workforce is essential to the Luxembourg economy. It currently represents 43% of total employment in Luxembourg and concerns some 170,000 cross-border commuters, mostly coming from Belgium, France and Germany.
There are two possible scenarios...
The different plans provide for between 224,000 and 429,000 cross-border commuters over the next forty years. These are very different figures due to two demographic hypotheses about the Grand Duchy, produced by Eurostat.
One of them, Europop2013, assumes that Luxembourg will reach over 1 million inhabitants in 2060. The other, Europop2015, assumes that the population will not exceed 995,000 inhabitantsat this date.
This difference in population seems slight, yet according to Fondation Idea it could change many things in the country's economy, particularly regarding the work of cross-border commuters. According to the foundation, the number of cross-border commuters required for the country's qualitative economic growth would thus beless than that required for quantitative growth. To arrive at this conclusion – which 'is not a prediction of what will happen in 2060 but gives a coherent picture of developments that could occur in the future', as the foundation points out – the analysis is also based on a variation in migration, birth rate and productivity, which would have consequences on the number of cross-border commuters and consequently on employment as a whole.
The aim of this analysis is to confront political decision-makers with this reality which is specific to Luxembourg, so that they take into account cross-border commuters in their strategic choices in terms of the economy but also finances and the environment. For example, Fondation Idea cites the fact that these workers are not taken into account in Rifkin's study of the third industrial revolution, which doubtless had an impact on the various hypotheses covered at that time.
(Article written by the luxembourg.lu portal's editorial team)